Noynoy’s lead and Binay’s surge

THE LATEST PULSE ASIA SURVEY SHOWS such a very large difference between Noynoy Aquino and his two runners-up, Erap Estrada and Manny Villar, that any attempt to manipulate the results can only end up in failure. That 19-percent difference, plus or minus 2 percent, means that, assuming a voter turnout of 80 percent (translating to about 40 million voters) and there’s no change in the voters’ minds, the cheaters will have to manipulate between 7.6 million and 8.4 million votes just to achieve a tie.

If they spread the cheating evenly over the roughly 76,000 precincts, that will further mean (using the lower 7.6 million votes) a “dagdag-bawas” of about 100 votes per clustered precinct. That is going to take some doing—because that will mean a cheating rate averaging 20 percent (the average number of voters will be roughly 500 per precinct), and at the very least 10 percent (for clustered precincts with 1,000 voters). That will be relatively easy to detect—although, alas, later rather than sooner because of the reported decision of the Comelec not to allow the results of the random manual audit (assuming it is properly carried out) to affect the proclamation process.

The latest Pulse Asia survey, however, also brings surprising, and potentially worrisome news: vice presidential candidate Mar Roxas, whose two main opponents (Loren Legarda and Jojo Binay) were in a statistical tie around 20 points behind him, is now faced with the proverbial dark horse (no pun intended) in Binay. In under a month, Binay’s ratings shot up by 9 points to 28 percent, while Roxas’ dropped by 6 points to 37 percent. And while the difference between them is still large, a continuation of that trend might mean a close contest. It is not to be overlooked that 9 percent of the sampled registered voters still do not have any preference for vice president.

Why is that potentially worrisome? Aside from the fact that when surveys show the possibility of a tight race cheating syndicates come into their own—Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales has already raised the warning flags notwithstanding Comelec assurances to the contrary—what is worrisome is that Binay has not received the close public scrutiny a main contender to the vice presidency should have received. For the simple reason, of course, that he was not considered a serious contender (thus the dark horse analogy). So that when Chiz Escudero (to whom, arguably, is given the doubtful honor of having been responsible for Binay’s meteoric ratings rise) endorsed him, his encomiums fell on fertile ground.

What is worrisome is that the very characteristics that apparently have turned voters away from Villar seem to be applicable to Binay as well. Both are perceived to have used their government positions—Villar as congressman, House Speaker, senator and Senate president; Binay as Makati mayor since 1986 (barring a three-year period during which his wife was the mayor)—for private gain. Else, among others, what could be the possible sources of their humongous campaign expenditures?

Let us try to quantify as far as Binay expenditures are concerned: Per the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, Binay spent, for the three months covering Nov. 1, 2009 to Jan 31, 2010, P75 million on radio, TV and print ads, compared to Mar Roxas’ P97 milllion, Loren Legarda’s P40 million and Bayani Fernando’s P17 million. So what’s wrong with that? Binay’s expenditures, after all, are only 80 percent of Roxas’. Yes, except that Escudero’s endorsement is to the effect that Binay is “hindi pinanganak na mayaman, ’di rin ilustrado.” Well and good. So if Binay, who was a human rights lawyer (and we all know how little that pays) before he became Makati mayor, and was not born rich or landed, where did he get all that money to spend? Remember, he was already spending on ads starting in November 2008, when he declared his desire to run for president. An interesting sidelight here is that Binay, according to the same PCIJ report, is the only vice presidential candidate whose pre-campaign ad values exceeded that of his running mate (1.6 times higher than Estrada’s).

Newsbreak, in a 2001 report—“The Lord of Makati—Can Binay Explain His Wealth?”—claims that “In less than a decade, Jejomar ‘Jojo’ Binay . . . accumulated at least P80 million worth of real estate properties in Makati and Batangas, which he kept undeclared. The amount excludes P12 million in declared investments, as well as other businesses that he and his friends reportedly control through dummy corporations” (emphasis supplied), presumably so they cannot be traced to him. Like what? Well, a former aide, according to the same report, claims that Binay acquired more than 10 houses and lots in Dasmariñas Village (as of nine years ago).

But how does he get the funds? Bobby Brillante, Binay’s political opponent, cites chapter and verse—mostly overpriced purchases and projects. The Commission on Audit has reports about overpricing of furniture and equipment (for the Makati City Hall, which ended up costing three times more than originally estimated), and medical equipment for the Makati Hospital.

At least one of the charges brought against Binay by Brillante has been dismissed. Brillante, who then charged that the deputy ombudsman and the Sandiganbayan justices were bribed was in turn charged with libel by Binay.

If the voters have turned away from Villar, will they do the same with Binay? Only time will tell.

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The article is published by Solita Collas-Monsod in her Get Real column at the Philippine Daily Inquirer last April 30, 2010 with the same title posted above

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